Market Excess



Watching at the bigger picture, last All Time High (ATH) has a lack of decent excess on it.

Usually, market needs an excess high to call an end to the current bullish auction.

Lack of excess is created by nervous longs who continually sell their positions on each test of current high of day.

Often there will be some action a few ticks above that high but there will be no new buyers stepping in to push higher.

That action at highs is a sign that short term traders are in control and they are nervous at the top.

They are weaker hands that are selling into strength, not feeling conviction to hold. Here is a chart to see how an excess looks like.



An excess high is one which has a top on it that is excessive, meaning having a long single print tail.

That tail can be created either by 2 scenarios:

1) A market opening high and having an early liquidation break back down which causes the spike.

2) A market that moves in a range and then shoots up 'out of balance' in an exhaustion rally to come back into range.

When an excess high appears on a chart in a new swing high area after a market has moved up for some time.

It can be a signal that the recent up auction is over.

An auction should have a "proper" end, with a shout and not a whisper.